Tag Archives: rationality

2016 Predictions: Calibration Results

At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them. Here are 2014 and 2015. And here are the predictions I made for 2016. Strikethrough’d are false. Intact are true. Italicized are … Continue reading

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Might People On The Internet Sometimes Lie?

From Reddit: Parents Of Children Who Claim To Have Had Past Lives, What Did They Tell You?. Some sample comments: When he was 6 years old my son described in great detail my grandmother’s house he never been to. This … Continue reading

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SSC Journal Club: Expert Prediction Of Experiments

I. It’s been a good month for fretting over failures of expert opinion, so let’s look at DellaVigna & Pope, Predicting Experimental Results: Who Knows What? The authors ran a pretty standard behavioral economics experiment where they asked people on … Continue reading

Tuesday Shouldn’t Change The Narrative

538 predicts Hillary has a 65% chance of winning the election to Trump’s 35%. New York Times says it’s more like 84% Hillary and 16% Trump. Both sites agree both candidates will get somewhere between 40% and 50% of the … Continue reading

It’s Bayes All The Way Up

[Epistemic status: Very speculative. I am not a neuroscientist and apologize for any misinterpretation of the papers involved. Thanks to the people who posted these papers in r/slatestarcodex. See also Mysticism and Pattern-Matching and Bayes For Schizophrenics] Bayes’ Theorem is … Continue reading

Book Review: Superforecasting

Philip Tetlock, author of Superforecasting, got famous by studying prediction. His first major experiment, the Expert Political Judgment experiment, is frequently cited as saying that top pundits’ predictions are no more accurate than a chimp throwing darts at a list … Continue reading

Predictions For 2016

At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them. So here are a hundred more for 2016. Most of them are objectively decideable, but a few are subjective (eg “X goes … Continue reading

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2015 Predictions: Calibration Results

Many people are making predictions for the new year around now. I see fewer people going back and grading the accuracy of their predictions about last year, even though that obviously has a lot of relevance for how seriously we … Continue reading

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What Developmental Milestones Are You Missing?

[Epistemic status: Speculative. I can’t make this post less condescending and elitist, so if you don’t like condescending elitist things, this might not be for you.] Developmental psychology never struck my interest in the same way as a lot of … Continue reading

Contra Simler on Prestige

su3su2u1 challenged status/signaling theories of human behavior: can they make any real-life predictions? His example was a recent medical conference that threw together three groups of people – high-status top professors, medium-status established doctors, and low-status new residents. The women … Continue reading