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Tag Archives: rationality

What Developmental Milestones Are You Missing?

[Epistemic status: Speculative. I can’t make this post less condescending and elitist, so if you don’t like condescending elitist things, this might not be for you.] Developmental psychology never struck my interest in the same way as a lot of … Continue reading

Contra Simler on Prestige

su3su2u1 challenged status/signaling theories of human behavior: can they make any real-life predictions? His example was a recent medical conference that threw together three groups of people – high-status top professors, medium-status established doctors, and low-status new residents. The women … Continue reading

Cardiologists and Chinese Robbers

I. It takes a special sort of person to be a cardiologist. This is not always a good thing. You may have read about one or another of the “cardiologist caught falsifying test results and performing dangerous unnecessary surgeries to … Continue reading

Probabilities Without Models

[Epistemic status: Not original to me. Also, I might be getting it wrong.] A lot of responses to my Friday post on overconfidence centered around this idea that we shouldn’t, we can’t, use probability at all in the absence of … Continue reading

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On Overconfidence

[Epistemic status: This is basic stuff to anyone who has read the Sequences, but since many readers here haven’t I hope it is not too annoying to regurgitate it. Also, ironically, I’m not actually that sure of my thesis, which … Continue reading

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Stop Adding Zeroes

Dylan Matthews writes a critique of effective altruism. There is much to challenge in it, and some has already been challenged by people like Ryan Carey. Perhaps I will go into it at more length later. But for now I … Continue reading

Contra Hallquist On Scientific Rationality

I. Topher Hallquist recently wrote a long article calling Less Wrong and the rationalist community “against scientific rationality” and having “crackpot tendencies”. The piece claims to be about “the Less Wrong community”, but mostly takes the form of a series … Continue reading

The General Factor Of Correctness

People on Tumblr are discussing Eliezer Yudkowsky’s old essay The Correct Contrarian Cluster, and my interpretation was different enough that I thought it might be worth spelling out. So here it is: is there a General Factor of Correctness? Remember, … Continue reading

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(Late) Predictions for 2015

I was supposed to institute a tradition of making predictions at the beginning of each year, then grading them at the end to test my calibration. Everything went according to plan last year – last January I made predictions for … Continue reading

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2014 Predictions: Calibration Results

Last year in January I made some predictions for 2014 and gave my calibration level for each. Time to see how I did. Ones in black were successes, ones in red were failures. 1. Obamacare will survive the year mostly … Continue reading

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