"Talks a good game about freedom when out of power, but once he’s in – bam! Everyone's enslaved in the human-flourishing mines."

Tag Archives: rationality

Book Review: Inadequate Equilibria

I. Eliezer Yudkowsky’s catchily-titled Inadequate Equilibria is many things. It’s a look into whether there is any role for individual reason in a world where you can always just trust expert consensus. It’s an analysis of the efficient market hypothesis … Continue reading

Does Age Bring Wisdom?

[Related: Can It Be Wrong To Crystallize Patterns?] I. I turn 33 today. I can only hope that age brings wisdom. We’ve been talking recently about the high-level frames and heuristics that organize other concepts. They’re hard to transmit, and … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | 349 Comments

Non-Expert Explanation

SSC’s review of postmodernism got very mixed reviews. Some of them made a good point: why should I be trying this at all? I’m not a postmodernist, I’m not a philosophy professor, surely someone much more qualified has already written … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | 194 Comments

Why Not More Excitement About Prediction Aggregation?

There’s a new ad on the sidebar for Metaculus, a crowd-sourced prediction engine that tries to get well-calibrated forecasts on mostly scientific topics. If you’re wondering how likely it is that a genetically-engineered baby will be born in the next … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | 172 Comments

Yes, We Have Noticed The Skulls

[Related: Tyler Cowen on rationalists, Noah Smith on rationalists, Will Wilkinson on rationalists, etc] If I were an actor in an improv show, and my prompt was “annoying person who’s never read any economics, criticizing economists”, I think I could … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | 617 Comments

Guided By The Beauty Of Our Weapons

[Content note: kind of talking around Trump supporters and similar groups as if they’re not there.] I. Tim Harford writes The Problem With Facts, which uses Brexit and Trump as jumping-off points to argue that people are mostly impervious to … Continue reading

SSC Journal Club: Analytical Thinking Style And Religion

[Content warning: religious people might feel kind of like this objectifies them and treats them as weird phenomena to be explained away.] A major theme of this blog is: why do people disagree so intractably? And what can we do … Continue reading

Another Followup To “Economists On Education”

Last month I argued that a news article misrepresented the feelings of economists on school vouchers. I got a bit of pushback from people who thought I had just misread it, and that it wasn’t deceptive at all (1, 2, … Continue reading

Heuristics Work Until They Don’t

I. I got to talk to some AI researchers last week, and they emphasized how surprised everyone had been by recent progress in the field. They all agreed on why they were surprised: the “AI winters”, two (or so) past … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | 350 Comments

2016 Predictions: Calibration Results

At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them. Here are 2014 and 2015. And here are the predictions I made for 2016. Strikethrough’d are false. Intact are true. Italicized are … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | 131 Comments