Monthly Archives: April 2020

Predictions For 2020

At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them. So here are a hundred more for 2020.

Rules: all predictions are about what will be true on January 1, 2021. Some predictions about my personal life, or that refer to the personal lives of other people, have been redacted to protect their privacy. I’m using the full 0 – 100 range in making predictions this year, but they’ll be flipped and judged as 50 – 100 in the rating stage, just like in previous years. I’ve tried to avoid doing specific research or looking at prediction markets when I made these, though some of them I already knew what the markets said.

Feel free to get in a big fight over whether 50% predictions are meaningful.

CORONAVIRUS:
1. Bay Area lockdown (eg restaurants closed) will be extended beyond June 15: 60%
2. …until Election Day: 10%
3. Fewer than 100,000 US coronavirus deaths: 10%
4. Fewer than 300,000 US coronavirus deaths: 50%
5. Fewer than 3 million US coronavirus deaths: 90%
6. US has highest official death toll of any country: 80%
7. US has highest death toll as per expert guesses of real numbers: 70%
8. NYC widely considered worst-hit US city: 90%
9. China’s (official) case number goes from its current 82,000 to 100,000 by the end of the year: 70%
10. A coronavirus vaccine has been approved for general use and given to at least 10,000 people somewhere in the First World: 50%
11. Best scientific consensus ends up being that hydroxychloroquine was significantly effective: 20%
12. I personally will get coronavirus (as per my best guess if I had it; positive test not needed): 30%
13. Someone I am close to (housemate or close family member) will get coronavirus: 60%
14. General consensus is that we (April 2020 US) were overreacting: 50%
15. General consensus is that we (April 2020 US) were underreacting: 20%
16. General consensus is that summer made coronavirus significantly less dangerous: 70%
17. …and there is a catastrophic (50K+ US deaths, or more major lockdowns, after at least a month without these things) second wave in autumn: 30%
18. I personally am back to working not-at-home: 90%
19. At least half of states send every voter a mail-in ballot in 2020 presidential election: 20%
20. PredictIt is uncertain (less than 95% sure) who won the presidential election for more than 24 hours after Election Day. 20%

POLITICS:
21. Democrats nominate Biden, and he remains nominee on Election Day: 90%
22. Balance of evidence available on Election Day supports (as per my opinion) Tara Reade accusation: 90%
23. Conditional on me asking about Reade on SSC survey, average survey-taker’s credence in her accusation is greater than 50%: 70%
24. …greater than 75%: 10%
25. …greater than credence in Kavanaugh accusation asked in the same format: 40%
26. Trump is re-elected President: 50%
27. Democrats keep the House: 70%
28. Republicans keep the Senate: 50%
29. Trump approval rating higher than 43% on June 1: 30%
30. Biden polling higher than Trump on June 1: 70%
31. At least one new Supreme Court Justice: 20%
32. I vote Democrat for President: 80%
33. Boris still UK PM: 90%
34. No new state leaves EU: 90%
35. UK, EU extend “transition” trade deal: 80%
36. Kim Jong-Un alive and in power: 60%

ECON AND TECH:
37. Dow is above 25,000: 70%
38. …above 30,000: 20%
39. Bitcoin is above $5,000: 70%
40. …above $10,000: 20%
41. I have bought a Surface Book 3 laptop: 60%
42. Crew Dragon reaches orbit: 80%
43. Starship reaches orbit: 40%

SSC, ETC:
44. I do another Nootropics Survey this year: 70%
45. I do another SSC Survey this year: 90%
46. I start a Reader SSC Survey this year: 60%
47. I start a SSC Book Review Contest this year: 70%
48. I run another Adversarial Collaboration Contest this year: 10%
49. I publish [redacted]: 20%
50. I publish [redacted]: 50%
51. I publish [redacted]: 60%
52. I publish [redacted]: 80%
53. …conditional on being published, it gets at least 40,000 pageviews: 10%
54. I publish [redacted]: 60%
55. …conditional on being published, it gets at least 40,000 pageviews: 50%
56. More hits this year than last: 70%
57. Most hits ever this year: 20%
58. I finish Unsong revision this year: 40%
59. New co-blogger with more than 3 posts: 10%

FRIENDS:
60. No new long-term (1 month +) residents at group house by the end of the year: 70%
61. Koios has said his first clear comprehensible word: 50%
62. [redacted]: 40%
63. [redacted]: 60%
64. [redacted]: 80%
65. [redacted]: 80%
66. [redacted]: 95%
67. [redacted]: 10%
68. [redacted]: 95%
69. [redacted]: 80%
70. [redacted]: 80%
71. [redacted]: 50%

PROFESSIONAL
72. I’ve gotten at least one new patient to do a full wake therapy protocol: 60%
73. I have specific, set-in-motion plans to quit work / start my own business: 5%
74. I work the same schedule and locations I did before the coronavirus: 80%
75. I get a bonus for 2020: 20%

PERSONAL:
76. [redacted]: 70%
77. [redacted]: 70%
78. [redacted]: 95%
79. I travel to Alaska this year: 60%
80. [redacted]: 40%
81. [redacted]: 20%
82. I go on at least three dates with someone I haven’t met yet: 20%
83. [redacted]: 10%
84. [redacted]: 30%
85. [redacted]: 10%
86. I try one biohacking project per month x at least 5 of the last 6 months of 2020: 30%
87. I find at least one new supplement I take or expect to take regularly x 3 months: 20%
88. Not eating meat at home: 40%
89. Weight below 200: 50%
90. Weight below 190: 10%
91. [redacted]: 90%
92. [redacted]: 30%
93. [redacted]: 5%
94. I travel outside the country at least once: 10%
95. I get back into meditating seriously (at least ten minutes a day, five days a week) for at least a month: 10%
96. At least ten tweets in 2020: 80%
97. I eat at/from Sliver more than any other restaurant in Q4 2020: 50%
98. [redacted]: 30%
99. I do pushups and situps at least 3 days/week in average week of Q4 2020: 60%
100. I write the post scoring these predictions before 2/1/21: 70%