Monthly Archives: April 2020

A Failure, But Not Of Prediction

I. Vox asks What Went Wrong With The Media’s Coronavirus Coverage? They conclude that the media needs to be better at “not just saying what we do know, but what we don’t know”. This raises some important questions. Like: how … Continue reading

Open Thread 151.5

This is the twice-weekly hidden open thread. You can also talk at the SSC subreddit or the SSC Discord server.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | 1,300 Comments

Coronalinks 4/10: Second Derivative

The second derivative is the rate of growth of the rate of growth. Over the past few weeks, the second derivative of total coronavirus cases switched from positive (typical of exponential growth) to zero or negative (typical of linear or … Continue reading

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2019 Predictions: Calibration Results

At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them (this year I’m very late). Here are 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018. And here are the predictions I made for 2019. … Continue reading

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Open Thread 151.25

This is the twice-weekly hidden open thread. You can also talk at the SSC subreddit or the SSC Discord server.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | 1,163 Comments

Never Tell Me The Odds (Ratio)

[Epistemic status: low confidence, someone tell me if the math is off. Title was stolen from an old Less Wrong post that seems to have disappeared – let me know if it’s yours and I’ll give you credit] I almost … Continue reading

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SSCJC: Real World Depression Measurement

The largest non-pharma antidepressant trial ever conducted just confirmed what we already knew: scientists love naming things after pandas. We already had PANDAS (Pediatric Autoimmune Neuropsychiatric Disorders Associated with Streptococcus) and PANDA (Proton ANnhilator At DArmstadt). But the latest in … Continue reading

Open Thread 151

This is the bi-weekly visible open thread (there are also hidden open threads twice a week you can reach through the Open Thread tab on the top of the page). Post about anything you want, but please try to avoid … Continue reading

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Book Review: The Precipice

I. It is a well known fact that the gods hate prophets. False prophets they punish only with ridicule. It’s the true prophets who have to watch out. The gods find some way to make their words come true in … Continue reading

Open Thread 150.75

This is the twice-weekly hidden open thread. You can also talk at the SSC subreddit or the SSC Discord server.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | 1,446 Comments