Tag Archives: rationality

(Late) Predictions for 2015

I was supposed to institute a tradition of making predictions at the beginning of each year, then grading them at the end to test my calibration. Everything went according to plan last year – last January I made predictions for … Continue reading

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2014 Predictions: Calibration Results

Last year in January I made some predictions for 2014 and gave my calibration level for each. Time to see how I did. Ones in black were successes, ones in red were failures. 1. Obamacare will survive the year mostly … Continue reading

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Beware The Man Of One Study

Aquinas famously said: beware the man of one book. I would add: beware the man of one study. For example, take medical research. Suppose a certain drug is weakly effective against a certain disease. After a few years, a bunch … Continue reading

Why I Am Not Rene Descartes

I. Imagine that somebody wrote: Some of my friends support Ron Paul. I think that’s wrong. After all, he’s a libertarian, and Wikipedia says a libertarian is a person who believes in free will. But free will is impossible in … Continue reading

The Categories Were Made For Man, Not Man For The Categories

I. “Silliest internet atheist argument” is a hotly contested title, but I have a special place in my heart for the people who occasionally try to prove Biblical fallibility by pointing out whales are not a type of fish. (this … Continue reading

Ethnic Tension And Meaningless Arguments

I. Part of what bothers me – and apparently several others – about yesterday’s motte-and-bailey discussion is that here’s a fallacy – a pretty successful fallacy – that depends entirely on people not being entirely clear on what they’re arguing … Continue reading

All In All, Another Brick In The Motte

One of the better things I’ve done with this blog was help popularize Nicholas Shackel’s “motte and bailey doctrine”. But I’ve recently been reminded I didn’t do a very good job of it. So here is a clean new post … Continue reading

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Tumblr on MIRI

[Disclaimer: I have done odd jobs for MIRI once or twice several years ago, but I am not currently affiliated with them in any way and do not speak for them.] A recent Tumblr conversation on the Machine Intelligence Research … Continue reading

Prediction Goes To War

Croesus supposedly asked the Oracle what would happen in a war between him and Persia, and the Oracle answered such a conflict would “destroy a great empire”. We all know what happened next. What if oracles gave clear and accurate … Continue reading

Mapmaker, Mapmaker, Make Me A Map

I was recently looking through some old concept-maps of communities, like Julia’s Map of Bay Area Memespace, Scharlach’s Dark Enlightenment Roadmap and especially xkcd’s map of the Internet. And I thought we should have something like that for the rationalist … Continue reading