Yearly Archives: 2015

Theses On Trump

The smart money still says Trump will crash and burn before getting the nomination. But everyone saying this should have to add “however, he’s certainly lasted much longer than we originally predicted.” Scott Adams places the blame for this surprising … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | 776 Comments

OT27: A Comment Appears

This is the semimonthly open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | 933 Comments

Magic Markers

[Thanks to some people on Rationalist Tumblr, especially prophecyformula, for help and suggestions.] There’s an old philosophers’ saying – trust those who seek the truth, distrust those who say they’ve found it. The psychiatry version of this goes “Trust those … Continue reading

Links 8/15: Linkering Doubts

Okay guys, there’s an island in San Francisco Bay on sale for five million dollars. That’s, like, less than a lot of houses in San Francisco. Surely some of you can get together and figure out something awesome to do … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | 606 Comments

Mysticism and Pattern-Matching

[Epistemic status: Total conjecture.] One of the things that got me interested in psychiatry was the sheer weirdness of the human brain’s failure modes. We all hear that the brain is like a computer, but when a computer breaks, the … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | 326 Comments

Probabilities Without Models

[Epistemic status: Not original to me. Also, I might be getting it wrong.] A lot of responses to my Friday post on overconfidence centered around this idea that we shouldn’t, we can’t, use probability at all in the absence of … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | 448 Comments

On Overconfidence

[Epistemic status: This is basic stuff to anyone who has read the Sequences, but since many readers here haven’t I hope it is not too annoying to regurgitate it. Also, ironically, I’m not actually that sure of my thesis, which … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | 703 Comments

OT26: Au Bon Thread

This is the semimonthly open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | 1,101 Comments

The Goddess of Everything Else

[Related to: Specific vs. General Foragers vs. Farmers and War In Heaven, but especially The Gift We Give To Tomorrow] They say only Good can create, whereas Evil is sterile. Think Tolkien, where Morgoth can’t make things himself, so perverts … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | 382 Comments

Links 8/15: Linkety-Split

Guys, I think Thomas Schelling might be alive and working in a Kentucky police department: Police offer anonymous form for drug dealers to snitch on their competitors. Journalists admitting they’re wrong is always to be celebrated, so here’s Chris Cilizza: … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | 416 Comments