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Tag Archives: rationality

Yes, We Have Noticed The Skulls

[Related: Tyler Cowen on rationalists, Noah Smith on rationalists, Will Wilkinson on rationalists, etc] If I were an actor in an improv show, and my prompt was “annoying person who’s never read any economics, criticizing economists”, I think I could … Continue reading

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Guided By The Beauty Of Our Weapons

[Content note: kind of talking around Trump supporters and similar groups as if they’re not there.] I. Tim Harford writes The Problem With Facts, which uses Brexit and Trump as jumping-off points to argue that people are mostly impervious to … Continue reading

SSC Journal Club: Analytical Thinking Style And Religion

[Content warning: religious people might feel kind of like this objectifies them and treats them as weird phenomena to be explained away.] A major theme of this blog is: why do people disagree so intractably? And what can we do … Continue reading

Another Followup To “Economists On Education”

Last month I argued that a news article misrepresented the feelings of economists on school vouchers. I got a bit of pushback from people who thought I had just misread it, and that it wasn’t deceptive at all (1, 2, … Continue reading

Heuristics Work Until They Don’t

I. I got to talk to some AI researchers last week, and they emphasized how surprised everyone had been by recent progress in the field. They all agreed on why they were surprised: the “AI winters”, two (or so) past … Continue reading

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2016 Predictions: Calibration Results

At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them. Here are 2014 and 2015. And here are the predictions I made for 2016. Strikethrough’d are false. Intact are true. Italicized are … Continue reading

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Might People On The Internet Sometimes Lie?

From Reddit: Parents Of Children Who Claim To Have Had Past Lives, What Did They Tell You?. Some sample comments: When he was 6 years old my son described in great detail my grandmother’s house he never been to. This … Continue reading

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SSC Journal Club: Expert Prediction Of Experiments

I. It’s been a good month for fretting over failures of expert opinion, so let’s look at DellaVigna & Pope, Predicting Experimental Results: Who Knows What? The authors ran a pretty standard behavioral economics experiment where they asked people on … Continue reading

Tuesday Shouldn’t Change The Narrative

538 predicts Hillary has a 65% chance of winning the election to Trump’s 35%. New York Times says it’s more like 84% Hillary and 16% Trump. Both sites agree both candidates will get somewhere between 40% and 50% of the … Continue reading

It’s Bayes All The Way Up

[Epistemic status: Very speculative. I am not a neuroscientist and apologize for any misinterpretation of the papers involved. Thanks to the people who posted these papers in r/slatestarcodex. See also Mysticism and Pattern-Matching and Bayes For Schizophrenics] Bayes’ Theorem is … Continue reading