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Five More Years

Those yearly “predictions for next year” posts are starting to reach the limit of their usefulness. Not much changes from year to year, and most of what does change is hard to capture in objective probabilistic predictions. So in honor … Continue reading

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Predictions For 2018

At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them. So here are a hundred more for 2018. Some changes this year: I’ve eliminated a bunch of predictions about things that are … Continue reading

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2017 Predictions: Calibration Results

At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them. Here are 2014, 2015, and 2016. And here are the predictions I made for 2017. Strikethrough’d are false. Intact are true. Italicized … Continue reading

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Predictions For 2017

At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them. So here are a hundred more for 2017. WORLD EVENTS 1. US will not get involved in any new major war with … Continue reading

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You Are Still Crying Wolf

I think this post has been picked up by some pro-Trump bots who won’t stop tweeting it. I am going to try hiding it for a while to see what happens. If you really want the original, you can find … Continue reading

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