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	<title>Comments for Slate Star Codex</title>
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	<description>In a mad world, all blogging is psychiatry blogging</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2015 23:59:00 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>Comment on The General Factor Of Correctness by RCF</title>
		<link>http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/07/23/the-general-factor-of-correctness/#comment-221908</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[RCF]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2015 23:59:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://slatestarcodex.com/?p=3709#comment-221908</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;and as such assign much higher (though still low) prior probabilities to other unlikely claims.&quot;

That, by itself, does not give rise to Ark (note spelling) theory being any more likely. You are making the error of affirming the consequence: the Ark theory is unlikely, and clearly something unlikely is happening, so maybe the Ark theory is true. But you haven&#039;t provided any reason to prefer &quot;Both of the tramp&#039;s claims are true&quot; to &quot;The Bigfoot claim is true, but the Ark claim is not&quot;; you haven&#039;t given any reason why the probability mass that previously was assigned to &quot;Neither claim is true&quot; should be preferentially redistributed to &quot;Both are true&quot; rather than &quot;Just the Bigfoot one is true&quot;. You&#039;ve simply noted that there is probability mass to redistributed, and taken for granted that is should be redistributed to &quot;Both are true&quot;.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;and as such assign much higher (though still low) prior probabilities to other unlikely claims.&#8221;</p>
<p>That, by itself, does not give rise to Ark (note spelling) theory being any more likely. You are making the error of affirming the consequence: the Ark theory is unlikely, and clearly something unlikely is happening, so maybe the Ark theory is true. But you haven&#8217;t provided any reason to prefer &#8220;Both of the tramp&#8217;s claims are true&#8221; to &#8220;The Bigfoot claim is true, but the Ark claim is not&#8221;; you haven&#8217;t given any reason why the probability mass that previously was assigned to &#8220;Neither claim is true&#8221; should be preferentially redistributed to &#8220;Both are true&#8221; rather than &#8220;Just the Bigfoot one is true&#8221;. You&#8217;ve simply noted that there is probability mass to redistributed, and taken for granted that is should be redistributed to &#8220;Both are true&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>Comment on The General Factor Of Correctness by Izaak Weiss</title>
		<link>http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/07/23/the-general-factor-of-correctness/#comment-221906</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Izaak Weiss]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2015 23:52:29 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Or, Aristotle had some general factor of correctness that allowed him to make this prediction accurately without any knowledge, and Finders had a factor of incorrectness that condemned him to make this prediction wrongly even with lots of data.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Or, Aristotle had some general factor of correctness that allowed him to make this prediction accurately without any knowledge, and Finders had a factor of incorrectness that condemned him to make this prediction wrongly even with lots of data.</p>
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		<title>Comment on The General Factor Of Correctness by C.S.</title>
		<link>http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/07/23/the-general-factor-of-correctness/#comment-221905</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[C.S.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2015 23:50:11 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Could it be that CIA analysts, consciously or unconsciously tailor their predictions in order to make them more palatable for their bosses?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Could it be that CIA analysts, consciously or unconsciously tailor their predictions in order to make them more palatable for their bosses?</p>
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		<title>Comment on The General Factor Of Correctness by RCF</title>
		<link>http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/07/23/the-general-factor-of-correctness/#comment-221904</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[RCF]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2015 23:44:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://slatestarcodex.com/?p=3709#comment-221904</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You are responding to a hypothetical correlation by noting that there will be select examples of deviations from that correlation. That&#039;s not much of an objection.

The proposition under consideration is that the rule &quot;If someone has been right on something you know the answer for, then that gives you non-zero information on a question whose answer you don&#039;t know&quot;. Information is a stochastic property. What happens with a special case doesn&#039;t rebut an assertion of information.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You are responding to a hypothetical correlation by noting that there will be select examples of deviations from that correlation. That&#8217;s not much of an objection.</p>
<p>The proposition under consideration is that the rule &#8220;If someone has been right on something you know the answer for, then that gives you non-zero information on a question whose answer you don&#8217;t know&#8221;. Information is a stochastic property. What happens with a special case doesn&#8217;t rebut an assertion of information.</p>
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		<title>Comment on The General Factor Of Correctness by Nornagest</title>
		<link>http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/07/23/the-general-factor-of-correctness/#comment-221903</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nornagest]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2015 23:33:49 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[RationalWiki is not what I&#039;d call a reliable source on this topic, but I&#039;ve seen references to the basilisk blanked as late as a year ago.  I think Roko deleted his own account, though, albeit only after Eliezer threw a fit and blanked a bunch of his posts.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>RationalWiki is not what I&#8217;d call a reliable source on this topic, but I&#8217;ve seen references to the basilisk blanked as late as a year ago.  I think Roko deleted his own account, though, albeit only after Eliezer threw a fit and blanked a bunch of his posts.</p>
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		<title>Comment on The General Factor Of Correctness by Nornagest</title>
		<link>http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/07/23/the-general-factor-of-correctness/#comment-221902</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nornagest]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2015 23:30:52 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[I would be astonished if Iain Banks knew about this when he was writing that.  The book was released in 1987, which is a &lt;i&gt;couple&lt;/i&gt; years after Tetlock seems to have started working on judgment, but I wouldn&#039;t expect him to have produced any substantial results by that date.  The popular press only took it up in the late 2000s.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I would be astonished if Iain Banks knew about this when he was writing that.  The book was released in 1987, which is a <i>couple</i> years after Tetlock seems to have started working on judgment, but I wouldn&#8217;t expect him to have produced any substantial results by that date.  The popular press only took it up in the late 2000s.</p>
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		<title>Comment on The General Factor Of Correctness by Loquat</title>
		<link>http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/07/23/the-general-factor-of-correctness/#comment-221901</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Loquat]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2015 23:29:58 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Because he didn&#039;t ban on grounds of simply trolling, he banned on grounds of the idea being intrinsically dangerous, and according to RationalWiki he still doesn&#039;t believe it&#039;s safe to talk about the concept of &quot;acausal trade with possible superintelligences&quot;.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Because he didn&#8217;t ban on grounds of simply trolling, he banned on grounds of the idea being intrinsically dangerous, and according to RationalWiki he still doesn&#8217;t believe it&#8217;s safe to talk about the concept of &#8220;acausal trade with possible superintelligences&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Freedom On The Centralized Web by Rohan</title>
		<link>http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/07/22/freedom-on-the-centralized-web/#comment-221900</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Rohan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2015 23:11:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://slatestarcodex.com/?p=3705#comment-221900</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[That&#039;s not really fair to the company though. Let&#039;s say X-Corp employs Anna. Anna says something horrific on Twitter. People identify Anna as an employee of X-Corp and start boycotting X-Corp. X-Corp&#039;s sales crater. X-Corp cannot fire Anna and halt the bleeding.

You can&#039;t force people to keep shopping at X-Corp after they decide they don&#039;t want to. Whereas you can&#039;t really boycott the government, so the government suffers no real penalty from being unable to fire Anna.

In a perfect world, people wouldn&#039;t boycott or avoid the company for the employee&#039;s off-the-clock expressions of opinion. But in a world where they do, you have to let the company be able to protect itself.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That&#8217;s not really fair to the company though. Let&#8217;s say X-Corp employs Anna. Anna says something horrific on Twitter. People identify Anna as an employee of X-Corp and start boycotting X-Corp. X-Corp&#8217;s sales crater. X-Corp cannot fire Anna and halt the bleeding.</p>
<p>You can&#8217;t force people to keep shopping at X-Corp after they decide they don&#8217;t want to. Whereas you can&#8217;t really boycott the government, so the government suffers no real penalty from being unable to fire Anna.</p>
<p>In a perfect world, people wouldn&#8217;t boycott or avoid the company for the employee&#8217;s off-the-clock expressions of opinion. But in a world where they do, you have to let the company be able to protect itself.</p>
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		<title>Comment on The General Factor Of Correctness by LCL</title>
		<link>http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/07/23/the-general-factor-of-correctness/#comment-221899</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[LCL]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2015 23:08:50 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[I like the people-oriented view.  Extend it to encompass a good intuitive sense of human cognition patterns, and you can can judge not just &quot;who seems like a motivated BSer&quot; but also &quot;who seems like a rigorous thinker and who seems like a sloppy or hasty one.&quot;  That might get you most of the way to the right side of the controversy, just via knowing who to listen to.  

The only issue is that people in the field can also tell who&#039;s a BSer and who&#039;s a rigorous thinker.  Probably better than you can because they&#039;ll catch the BS or rigor of technical points and you&#039;ll miss it.  That&#039;s a big part of how consensus forms.  So I don&#039;t know how likely it would be to beat consensus with such an approach.

I guess you&#039;d be looking for someone with such developed &quot;people sense&quot; that they are superior judges of BS or rigor despite being ignorant to judge technical points.  Like they can infer it from writing style or organization or word choice or facial cues or others&#039; reactions or &lt;i&gt;something&lt;/i&gt; non-field-specific.

That level of people sense would be pretty amazing.  But I wouldn&#039;t be totally surprised to find it.  Any gene or meme that boosted intuition about the trustworthiness of information from other people would have been the subject of huge selection pressure since the invention of language.  We might by now harbor some pretty amazing capabilities in that regard.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I like the people-oriented view.  Extend it to encompass a good intuitive sense of human cognition patterns, and you can can judge not just &#8220;who seems like a motivated BSer&#8221; but also &#8220;who seems like a rigorous thinker and who seems like a sloppy or hasty one.&#8221;  That might get you most of the way to the right side of the controversy, just via knowing who to listen to.  </p>
<p>The only issue is that people in the field can also tell who&#8217;s a BSer and who&#8217;s a rigorous thinker.  Probably better than you can because they&#8217;ll catch the BS or rigor of technical points and you&#8217;ll miss it.  That&#8217;s a big part of how consensus forms.  So I don&#8217;t know how likely it would be to beat consensus with such an approach.</p>
<p>I guess you&#8217;d be looking for someone with such developed &#8220;people sense&#8221; that they are superior judges of BS or rigor despite being ignorant to judge technical points.  Like they can infer it from writing style or organization or word choice or facial cues or others&#8217; reactions or <i>something</i> non-field-specific.</p>
<p>That level of people sense would be pretty amazing.  But I wouldn&#8217;t be totally surprised to find it.  Any gene or meme that boosted intuition about the trustworthiness of information from other people would have been the subject of huge selection pressure since the invention of language.  We might by now harbor some pretty amazing capabilities in that regard.</p>
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		<title>Comment on The General Factor Of Correctness by Protagoras</title>
		<link>http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/07/23/the-general-factor-of-correctness/#comment-221898</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Protagoras]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2015 23:06:13 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[@Glossy, This does give me a weird feeling of deja vu to an essay by one of my least favorite philosophers, the late and I hope mostly unlamented David C. Stove. He wrote an essay arguing for the intellectual inferiority of women. Among the terrible arguments he deployed was the one you give, citing the lack of contributions from women. Like you, he seemed blissfully unaware of the fact that recent historians who have looked for contributions from women have found quite a lot of them; there seems to be a depressing pattern to stories about female accomplishments, where even if they were recognized in their own time (as happened more often than one who hasn&#039;t actually studied the history might think), later generations forget them, or more likely just forget that women were involved.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Glossy, This does give me a weird feeling of deja vu to an essay by one of my least favorite philosophers, the late and I hope mostly unlamented David C. Stove. He wrote an essay arguing for the intellectual inferiority of women. Among the terrible arguments he deployed was the one you give, citing the lack of contributions from women. Like you, he seemed blissfully unaware of the fact that recent historians who have looked for contributions from women have found quite a lot of them; there seems to be a depressing pattern to stories about female accomplishments, where even if they were recognized in their own time (as happened more often than one who hasn&#8217;t actually studied the history might think), later generations forget them, or more likely just forget that women were involved.</p>
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