Comments on: Predictions For 2014

By: Ilverin

Ilverin — Thu, 27 Feb 2014 21:57:06 +0000

As regards “No mass shooting in USA killing > 10 people: 50%”, you were wrong (Navy Yard Mass Shooting), but only one happened, so 50% seems to be low, but not excessively low.

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By: von Kalifornen

von Kalifornen — Sat, 01 Feb 2014 01:10:52 +0000

In the United States the terms are often used identically. In the UK and Europe, liberal implies pro-capitalism (oft. perjorative) and is considered a somewhat conservative position. Leftist is often quite broad, and is not well represented within Actual Govermental Politics in the US>

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By: Scott Alexander

Scott Alexander — Wed, 29 Jan 2014 21:28:47 +0000

I already *prefer* not to identify as anything, but I feel it’s a copout not to at least have something to round myself off to when someone asks.

I don’t think I am involved in political coalitions enough to be risking a lot by identifying as anything remotely normal. If I ended up believing in Nazism or something totally socially unacceptable like that…well, unclear. It depends on what started me believing in Nazism. If it was because I discovered it was very misunderstood, I would want to at least try explaining that to everyone else.

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By: Scott Alexander

Scott Alexander — Wed, 29 Jan 2014 21:26:40 +0000

It is and you should (although interestingly, at least a few people who follow him on transhumanism have downgraded their opinion of him because he recommends that book; I am really curious to see what is producing such polarized opinions)

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By: Douglas Knight

Douglas Knight — Wed, 29 Jan 2014 18:29:59 +0000

I’m glad that you try not to think of the mainstream as monolithic, but do you succeed? The broader the mainstream, the less an individual paper is evidence that it is moving. I suspect that you and St Rev claim it is moving based on far too few papers. Also, I suspect that your source of these papers is a biased filter.

Incidentally, I have a source who claims that the mainstream is moving to focus on all-cholesterol-but-HDL. I’m sure he is very biased in ways I don’t understand, but I’m pretty sure confirmation bias is not one them.

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By: Douglas Knight

Douglas Knight — Wed, 29 Jan 2014 18:21:47 +0000

By Scott’s standards, that link is less mainstream than Perfect Health Diet. It is not by a nutritionist, but by a cardiologist; and I think a practitioner rather than a researcher. But he is talking about CVD, while the PHD cancer researcher is not just talking about cancer.

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By: BenSix

BenSix — Wed, 29 Jan 2014 18:13:06 +0000

You have a point. I don’t think of the “mainstream” as a monolith, though.

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By: Douglas Knight

Douglas Knight — Wed, 29 Jan 2014 18:09:03 +0000

One claim I definitely reject that there is a mainstream position. Scott did not explicitly take this position, but St Rev and BenSix do, when they claim that the mainstream position is moving.

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By: Michael Edward Vassar

Michael Edward Vassar — Wed, 29 Jan 2014 18:06:24 +0000

What are your odds of ceasing to publicly identify as anything recognizable? Of publicly identifying as one thing and privately as something radically different? It seems to me that the logic of coalition politics competes with that of intellectual inquiry if one doesn’t do this.

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By: BenSix

BenSix — Wed, 29 Jan 2014 17:57:56 +0000

Guyenet is mainstream when he isn’t talking about saturated fat – though the mainstream seems to be shifting towards his position on that. I do not have the expertise with which judge who’s right, though the respect that the extremely tendentious Gary Taubes receives makes me fear that some people are shifting paradigms too hastily.

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